Four-tier alert system aims to keep citizens in South Korea informed, safe
The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, in the foreground, transits the Philippine Sea with Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force vessels in this April 26 photo released by the U.S. Navy. © AP
TOKYO -- Tensions are rising dangerously on the Korean Peninsula as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump square off.
While North Korea has threatened to conduct a new nuclear test in defiance of mounting international criticism, the Trump administration has ratcheted up pressure on Pyongyang by warning that all options, including use of military force, are on the table.
Japan cannot afford to sit on the sidelines. If North Korea continues provoking tensions on the Korean Peninsula, the Japanese government will face the daunting task of evacuating nearly 60,000 of its citizens currently in South Korea.
Some 38,000 Japanese are now living in South Korea as long-term visitors, such as businesspeople. In addition, some 19,000 Japanese are staying there as tourists or other short-term visitors.
The Japanese government is poised to protect its citizens in the troubled region, monitoring the situation closely and classifying dangerous developments into four levels.
Level 1
The first -- and the lowest -- level of the four-tier alert system applies to situations in which Japanese nationals could be harmed.
For example, if a North Korean terror plot in South Korea is uncovered in advance, the Japanese Foreign Ministry will advise citizens via its website and elsewhere to voluntarily refrain from non-essential and non-urgent travel to South Korea.
By doing so, the Foreign Ministry will hopefully have reduced the number of short-term Japanese visitors should an emergency occur.
Level 2
Four-tier alert system aims to keep citizens in South Korea informed, safe
The second level applies to situations where Japanese are at greater risk than they are in Level 1 situations.
During Level 2 situations -- for example, if North and South Korea exchange fire -- the Foreign Ministry will urge its citizens not to travel to South Korea.
As for Japanese nationals already in the country, the ministry will call on the elderly, women, children and the infirm to return to Japan as soon as possible, according to the ministry's Consular Affairs Bureau.
Level 3
In more dangerous Level 3 situations, such as if the U.S. carries out a limited air strike on North Korea, the Foreign Ministry will immediately urge Japanese nationals to evacuate.
Japan will dispatch embassy staff in South Korea to local airports to help its citizens evacuate by commercial flights. If none are available, the government will consider chartering planes.
The Foreign Ministry's evacuation recommendation is now in place for Syria following the recent U.S. missile attack on a Syrian air base.
The ministry also issued an evacuation advisory for South Sudan in July 2016 in response to an escalation in fighting between government and rebel forces.
At the time, the Japanese government sent three Air Self-Defense Force transport aircraft to neighboring Djibouti to prepare for the evacuation of Japanese from South Sudan. The government-affiliated Japan International Cooperation Agency also flew a charter plane to evacuate its staff and some other Japanese from the country to neighboring Kenya.
Level 4
The fourth -- and highest -- alert level applies to the most dangerous situations, such as a large-scale North Korean counterattack that prompts South Korea to close domestic airports due to its inability to ensure the safety of commercial aircraft.
During Level 4 situations, the Foreign Ministry will ask Japanese nationals staying in South Korea to take refuge at local shelters or stay at home. Once the crisis subsides, the embassy and others will urge its citizens to flee to more distant and, presumably, safer areas.
Evacuating Japanese from the country by ship from Busan, a port on the southeastern-most tip of the Korean Peninsula, is also considered a likely option.
While preparing for a possible emergency in the region, the government is calling on the public to remain calm.
"If a conflict becomes more likely, there should be some signs of that, such as the families of U.S. troops in South Korea evacuating. We have no immediate plans to raise the crisis (alert) level. We want the public to respond calmly," said one government official.
Allies' cooperation
The basic policy of the government's evacuation plan is to help as many Japanese nationals as possible evacuate to Japan before the security situation seriously deteriorates.
But there is no guarantee that all Japanese in South Korea could be evacuated in time. If the situation boils over, Japan will have to seek help from the U.S., especially from its military forces stationed in South Korea.
Since Japan is a likely destination for U.S. nationals also fleeing South Korea, the Japanese government will ask the U.S. military to preferentially transport Japanese nationals as well.
But Japan and the U.S. have never conducted a joint evacuation drill assuming a military contingency. The big question is whether the two countries will be able to work together smoothly while avoiding confusion.
As a last resort, Japan will also consider utilizing the Japan Coast Guard and aircraft of the Self-Defense Forces, among other measures. This means that transport aircraft and vessels of the Self-Defense Forces could be dispatched.
The enactment of national security-related bills in September 2015 has made it possible for the Self-Defense Forces to not only transport but also rescue Japanese nationals living abroad. In doing so, members of the Self-Defense Forces will be allowed to use arms under certain conditions.
Japan will need to get prior consent from South Korea to dispatch its troops to the country. But many in South Korea are cool to the idea of having Japanese troops in their country, as they would be reminiscent of Japan's wartime occupation.
Observers are unsure whether consultations between Tokyo and Seoul on this matter will proceed smoothly.
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